Bob McNally, founder of the Rapidan Energy Group and a former White House energy adviser, has estimated the probability of a U.S. military strike against the Islamic Republic in the coming days or weeks at around 75 percent.
In an interview with CNBC, McNally pointed to reactions in global energy markets, noting that Brent crude oil prices have risen by about 5 percent over the past week and are up 14 percent since the beginning of the year. According to him, this trend indicates that the market has broken out of a year-long pattern of gradual price declines.
He warned that this time the situation is “real,” and that markets are pricing in a risk that could lead to a sustained disruption in global energy flows.
McNally emphasized that investors are seriously factoring military escalation scenarios into their calculations.
According to the energy expert, the greater risk lies in the possibility that the Islamic Republic could attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz—a strategic chokepoint through which around one-fifth of the world’s oil and a significant portion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.
He added that any disruption in this route could have immediate and far-reaching consequences for global energy markets.
